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Gavin56 Profile
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EX93
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Some "What ifs?"


Last year our cows went out on 7th May ( and were back in by the 21st).

This year they went out on 13th April and have milked extremely well.

As a consequence we will have produced a lot more milk than last April ( when we weren`t pushing cows owing to First Milk`s seasonality penalties = 12 p for our top litres).

What if this has been happening UK - wide? Last April was a poor spring in England IIRC.

Could we see a 5% rise in production - and would this take us up to the quota profile for the first time in several years?

What if the quota market then blinked?

Given that the AMPE for April has now hit 22.4 ppl ( up 5 ppl on last April ) - What if milk prices next winter topped 21 p with seasonality then on top?

Would it mean that it at long last paid to fill quota?

Are there enough cows left in the UK to do this ( never mind whether there are enough producers ! )

Its probably beyond the UK co-ops to score in the open goal that the world market represents at the present time but UDF at least seem fairly gung-ho about prospects.
29/4/2007, 22:43 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
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VG85
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Re: Some "What ifs?"


What if this dry spell continues? Our cows went out earlier too - just because, for once, ground conditions on our clay permitted it. Luckily we have plenty of silage left but we are already expecting to have to graze some silage fields if it doesn't rain soon. Others locally have no forage. Here in E Mids we did not have a very wet winter and we have had nothing more than a dust sprinkler in the last 5 weeks. What if we get the hot summer that is being promised (threatened) and cows are heat stressed, lethargic and lack of forage again? Barley is already flowering and the straw will be very short stemmed, ditto wheat. (I saw a field of beans locally, it was 6" high and flowering). What if the Australian drought and the commodities market in the states pushes the price of feed yet higher? What if the forthcoming NVZ revisions are that additional £50k or £80k of capital required that just ain't there on most dairy farms? What if the stilton creameries (that we supply) don't get the message that WE NEED A PRICE INCREASE..... they won't have any 3 counties milk because I know of plenty of farmers round here getting out of cows this summer!
30/4/2007, 0:08 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
Gavin56 Profile
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EX93
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Re: Some "What ifs?"


OK so some things are beginning to happen.

UDF acheive an auction at over 23 ppl for summer milk and the quota sale price on offer at IPA has now reached double the trough recorded earlier this year.
4/5/2007, 23:48 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
Gavin56 Profile
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EX93
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Re: Some "What ifs?"


Well April production is up , but with butterfat down , there hasn`t really been a rise in Kg of fat as it were.

Looks like the quota price is headed back over 3p though.
9/5/2007, 20:44 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
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EX93
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Re: Some "What ifs?"


Hmm . May production is back in line with last year , so no surge ( yet ) .

The quota market has eased , but the milk market is taking off.

22p in store price is looking cheapskate now.
11/6/2007, 0:27 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
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EX93
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Re: Some "What ifs?"


The latest rise from First Milk will push our price just over 18p but there is to be an increase for Highlands and Islands producer`s ( and they sure need it ) of [sign in to see URL] p from 1st July.

That will take them near to 20p a litre.

From a Co-op too.
27/6/2007, 23:45 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
astrixL Profile
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GP81
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Re: Some "What ifs?"


If first milk is a co-op why should highlands and islands producers recive such an increase over ordinary co-op members after all a co-op means everyone takes an even share of good or bad prices and if I remember correctly when one of the island creameries needed investment (waste disposal, from memory) all co-op member contributed to it after much wailing and knashing of teeth from the Bute producers! and now they seem to be gaining more from it than the rest of the 'co-op' members!!!!!
28/6/2007, 11:20 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
astrixL Profile
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GP81
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Re: Some "What ifs?"


If first milk is a co-op why should highlands and islands producers recive such an increase over ordinary co-op members after all a co-op means everyone takes an even share of good or bad prices and if I remember correctly when one of the island creameries needed investment (waste disposal, from memory) all co-op member contributed to it after much wailing and knashing of teeth from the Bute producers! and now they seem to be gaining more from it than the rest of the 'co-op' members!!!!!
28/6/2007, 11:22 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
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EX91
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Re: Some "What ifs?"


astrixL. if you are a First Milk member you would have had a small increase which came from the liquid market which the island producers did not get,we did not ask to be treated any different from other co-op members this is the way the Directors choose to run the creamaries. I still beleive in the co-op principle and by the way we have all helped in the island areas to pay for the 15% stake in Wisemans!!! :devil
28/6/2007, 19:11 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
Gavin56 Profile
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EX93
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Re: Some "What ifs?"


First Milk may be a co-op but the decision has been taken to differentiate contracts to reflect the end use fo the milk.

The Highlands and Islands producers` milk is ( mostly?) going into premium cheeses for niche markets.

Down south Barbers ( a smallish cheesemaker) has announced a 2p rise from 18.6 to [sign in to see URL].
29/6/2007, 2:49 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 


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