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astrixL Profile
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GP81

Registered: 01-2007
Posts: 10
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Re: Some "What ifs?"


was unaware that any of your fellow first milk members had had an increase from liquid milk which you have not had and if they had i dont beleive they should have got it and on the co-op principle they should be no disparity betwwen members either in payment recieved from first milk or contribution made to first milk as you are all in the co-op as supposed equals!
29/6/2007, 14:24 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
Gavin56 Profile
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EX93

Registered: 02-2004
Posts: 337
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Re: Some "What ifs?"


But there isn`t much point in incentivising a producer to up his protein levels , if his milk always goes to the liquid market at a flat rate price.In that case only the fat fraction has a value, and cell counts and TBCs are a priority.
29/6/2007, 23:31 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
Gavin56 Profile
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EX93

Registered: 02-2004
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Re: Some "What ifs?"


How much do you think July production has fallen from last year?

If we take a top limit of minus 30 milllion litres( same as June 2007 against 2006) what might be the range downwards?

Minus 5% would be around a drop of 60 million litres.

Last edited by Gavin56, 2/8/2007, 6:44
1/8/2007, 12:18 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
Eryl Vet Profile
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Ex97
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Registered: 11-2006
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First milk have declared force majeure on all their contracts, because production has fallen to less than 95% of prediction due to weather, floods etc - hence they cannot meet their contracts. If this is at all typical of the other milk purchasers then production must be down by at least 60 million litres...

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1/8/2007, 20:25 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
Gavin56 Profile
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EX93

Registered: 02-2004
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Re: …


Its interesting that the figure quoted by First Milk is a deviation from predicted production - and not a comparison to last year.

Of course a fair number of producers in the SW of Scotland have moved to Lactalis since April 1st, which will be having an influence up here.

Also of note is the slump in Wiseman`s share price through July.Is the market starting to worry about their raw supply costs?

In their annual report , and from reports of the AGM I formed the impression that RWD were trying to stress packaging costs as a major threat , which seems bizarre in view of a likely 5p a litre milk cost increase.
2/8/2007, 6:52 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
scoobyscotlad Profile
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EX90

Registered: 11-2006
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Re: …


The Wiseman share price drop is bound to be a "reaction" to thoughts of an increase in raw milk supply costs.I am sure the fact that Tesco was unable to secure the number of signatures required in the Wiseman pool doesn`t exactly help either.
The "increased packaging costs" is a bluff!


Last edited by scoobyscotlad, 2/8/2007, 7:58
2/8/2007, 7:57 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
Eryl Vet Profile
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Ex97
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Registered: 11-2006
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Re: …


quote:

Gavin56 wrote:
  in view of a likely 5p a litre milk cost increase.



Whilst the spot price and the AMPE and world commodity prices would suggest that we are due a price rise of at least 5ppl ... how can you seem so certain that this is actually going to happen? I am increasingly angry at the reluctance of the major dairies to increase the milk price in line with dairy commodity prices ... strange how farmgate prices fall immediately when world commodity prices are decreasing! Added to this we have just received details of the forthcoming increases in feed prices ... 40-75% for most straights, and some US byproducts unavailable. If there is a lag between these feed increases and the milk price increases we are due it will be the final straw for many dairy businesses ...
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2/8/2007, 12:11 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
Gavin56 Profile
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EX93

Registered: 02-2004
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Re: …


Yes we are in sight of the promised land - but will we ever get there?

Today`s news of the UDF auctions must put a rocket under the whole industry.

Who IS paying 34.66 p pl for 27 million litres?

What are they making it into, to sell on from that price? You`d need £3,500 for a tonne of cheese. !!!!!!!

If they are that desperate for milk , we should be told and given a price guarantee right now. We could turn the taps on a bit still ,
3X that type of thing.
2/8/2007, 23:02 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
Big Bird Profile
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Cowtalk Staff

Registered: 06-2003
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Re: …


quote:

Gavin56 wrote:

If they are that desperate for milk , we should be told and given a price guarantee right now. We could turn the taps on a bit still ,
3X that type of thing.




If they are that desperate for milk, maybe producing it for them shouldn't be our top priority.

As an industry we should be putting in place a system that attempts to prevent the farmer problems of the last 10 years and gives the farmer more control.

Over the last few years there has been talk several times of tipping milk away as a protest. The dairy companies would have laughed at us and simply bought elsewhere because they could.

Now they're in a position where they need the milk. Now is the time to set some rules of our own, not simply produce more milk because they're willing to pay more for it
6/8/2007, 10:13 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
Campbeltowncowboy Profile
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EX91

Registered: 03-2007
Posts: 238
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Re: …


 I couldnt agree more BB we have all waited along time to get to this position and should make some rules of our own: like if the price paid to us can go down overnight it can also go up the same way the milk buyers have run out of exuses they have used every one in the book, strengh of the euro/pound, cream prices,commoditiy prices,increases in THEIR fuel and packaging (for not passing on increases)the excuse book should be burned,and if your a direct or co-op producer we should all be asking our top men to get their finger out and play hard. No matter what price milk does go to you can bet the supermarkets will hang on to their margin!!!! :devil
6/8/2007, 11:57 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 


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