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Eryl Vet Profile
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Ex97
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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction


quote:

FiringOnAllFour wrote:

  I really hope for all our sakes that the english price stays up, but right now its bucking the europewide/worldwide trend of falling values.



It is a change for the 'english' price to be talked of in those terms... for a decade before last year we were way behind continental Europe .... hence why (together with a difficult season and burgeoning TB losses) production continues to fall over here. For this reason we been seeing small price rises rather than cuts this autumn ... where in the past the dairy companies would have been slashing prices by now in response to the world market. Because of a decade of poor (or no) profit, the industry has had no reinvestment and is on a knife edge that could not withstand any price cuts - lets hope that the dairy companies understand this and that our representatives are making it abundantly clear to them.



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http://www.facebook.com/wyevalleyherd http://www.facebook.com/wyevalleysires
27/10/2008, 0:29 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
will maxwell Profile
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Ex96

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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction


Cow prices remained fairly strong at Clogher on Saturday, I saw one first calver make £1400, maybe back a couple of hundred, but still very high considering the Auction result. Any of the United suppliers I spoke to were furious, alot of talk of 'getting out'

It just angers me that the supermarkets can have such sway, and good quality dairy farms, with generations of investment, knowlege and experience, will be forced to shut up shop if this worrying trend continues. Perhaps if 18ppl is a one-off 'blip' in the market we could sustain it, I'm doubtful however that it will be that, and concerned that it reflects a new direction for future milk prices.

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Farming is the oldest JOB in the world, too many people seem to have it confused with the oldest PROFESSION!
27/10/2008, 14:15 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
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Ex97
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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction


We have been rumbling along, making little or nothing for years, but this is perhaps the first time that we have faced making a substantial loss.

A lot of people have gone through the pain barrier of putting up slurry storage, and many have gone the extra mile and put a cubicle shed on it and bought a new parlour too. The rise in price came at the wrong time here as I said back then - it perhaps gave people a false encouragement to invest. We even had a handful of new people join the industry!

You english guys are seeing your slurry issues now with no gloss or added shine. That is a good thing.

At the end of the day, give or take a penny for processing issues (and that doesn't take away from the importance of such) - the fact is that we dropped seven ppl in a month because powder has collapsed. United doesn't have enough 'added value' outlets for its milk, so we are stuck in the meantime.

27/10/2008, 17:35 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
will maxwell Profile
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Ex96

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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction


So how does your cyborg eye see it FOAF?!

Is this the backside falling out of the market, never to be regained or is this something that might be overcome in the longer term?

I'm glad we haven't made any major investments, although we badly need a new parlour. Dad wants to pull the pin, and (as much as I hate to say it) I'm, for the first time ever, inclined to agree. We'll see what the mood is on Thursday night, and decide where to go after that. I can't forsee much positivity though, can you?!

---
Farming is the oldest JOB in the world, too many people seem to have it confused with the oldest PROFESSION!
27/10/2008, 17:50 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
FiringOnAllFour Profile
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Ex97
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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction


The price of commodities is going to fluctuate more widely, I think even for the world as a whole, but especially for us in the EU who had the peaks and troughs ironed out. Apparently its scaring the wits out of the buyers too, so none are buying long. The EU, being a large producer of milk, probably had some stabilising effect on the world market because it was able to hold production relatively steady from year to year.

As long as world production drops, then the price will most certainly come right back up again. In order to be any good at producing commodities, I think you have to have a cost of production that allows you to sell powder at a profit more often than a loss. Well. We aren't a low cost producer, so we'll probably be losing money more often than gaining. Heading in the direction of added value products is probably right, but its all about branding and marketing - and we aint got much money for that. Its going to be a bumpy road.


27/10/2008, 20:39 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
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Ex96

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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction


I hear what you're saying FOAF, but how many dairy farmers are going to wether the storm? The guys who are 50+ with no heir coming along (the majority of NI dairy farmers) aren't going to travel down that 'bumpy road'.

The new entrants will struggle to keep afloat, agaist the cost of borrowings taken to set up their units.

Who's left?

---
Farming is the oldest JOB in the world, too many people seem to have it confused with the oldest PROFESSION!
28/10/2008, 14:22 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
FiringOnAllFour Profile
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Ex97
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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction


I guess its just you and me mate.

Last one out, turn off the lights please.

28/10/2008, 15:32 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
Dairylands Profile
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EX93

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United dairy farmers Dec Auction


"The guys who are 50+ with no heir coming along (the majority of NI dairy farmers) aren't going to travel down that 'bumpy road'"

I don't know about that, I have neighbours in their 70s still milking away. I reckon old habits die hard.
On the positive Brown is doing a great job at devaluing the £ (not intentionally) - that might help the powder. Was it not the cheap dollar that made the US a profitable exporter?
28/10/2008, 21:42 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
will maxwell Profile
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Ex96

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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction


Woohoo!! Go Gordon! Perhaps there's a glimmer of hope on the horizon!

As for the guys in their 70's, (I don't mean to be pessamistic, but at 18ppl it's hard not to!) where will they be in 5 or 10 years?
What's the saying - 3 score years and 10?!

Just to add insult to injury, this week I've noticed the low-cost shop everyone loves to hate - LIDL - advertising milk as "Buy One Get One Free" BOG OF I say!

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Farming is the oldest JOB in the world, too many people seem to have it confused with the oldest PROFESSION!
29/10/2008, 10:54 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
scoobyscotlad Profile
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EX90

Registered: 11-2006
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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction


The postman delivered a "Farmfoods" flyer the other day showing our Wiseman`s milk at 2(1 litre)for a £1.Guess Lidl similar.
But we all love Farmfoods-after all they sell Tayto crisps & your other national drink....Club Orange! emoticon
29/10/2008, 13:57 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 


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