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Poll results (voting closed)
Very confident, we will be expanding our dairy business
4 votes
 
 11%
Moderately confident, we will consolidate our present business position
10 votes
 
 28%
No confidence but can't afford to give up
2 votes
 
 6%
Uncertain, we will be monitoring the situation carefully
11 votes
 
 31%
Little confidence, we will be restructuring/cutting back our dairy enterprise
3 votes
 
 8%
Zero confidence, we expect to quit dairying during 2009
2 votes
 
 6%
We already quit and are glad to have done so
2 votes
 
 6%
We quit, but wish we were back in
1 votes
 
 3%
We have never been stupid enough to run a dairy farm and never would
1 votes
 
 3%
We expect to start dairy farming during 2009
0 votes
 
 0%
Total: 36 voters.  Total votes: 36.  Max items per vote allowed: 1.
 
Eryl Vet Profile
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Ex97
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Poll: Dairying plans for 2009


As Jeff sets out in his doom and gloom thread 2009 is full of uncertainty. Not just in dairying but in all walks of life.

here in the UK one of the major milk buyers has wished us all a happy New Year with a 2ppl price cut.

That said, interest rates have fallen dramatically for those businesses with significant borrowing, and many input costs have fallen too.

Here in the UK it seems like a sizeable proportion will be considering exiting the industry if the milk price falls.

So what are your dairying plans for 2009?

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2/1/2009, 20:08 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
FiringOnAllFour Profile
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Ex97
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Re: Poll: Dairying plans for 2009


Thank you for a very broad range of choices. Bound to suit most people.

One of the major UK milk buyers has already cut its price by 5ppl since the summer, and will cut by at least another 4ppl over the next handful of months, depending on where it finds the bottom to be.

What price roughly is that 2ppl deducted from?

Regarding the British farming press, few of them scarcely bother to mention that dairy commodities haven't been so cheap in donkey's years, let alone that a crisis is imminent. I honestly can't understand them. Farmers weekly suggest that 2009 may not be as profitable as 2008. Understatement of the century, I'd say.

I'd like to believe the reports that call this a short term blip. The truth is that, while we expect the return of global demand for dairy products, we have no idea when that might occur. We are still sliding into a world recession, and no one knows the timescale, or the depth and severity of it. Predictions of a good recovery in prices this year could be premature. I hope I'm wrong.

I don't mean to be a 'Jeff' by the way. Thats just how it looks, standing on the wrong side of 20 pee.

3/1/2009, 11:44 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
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Re: Poll: Dairying plans for 2009


I can't vote unless I fib and that would skew the poll, therefore I can't see the results. :arrh

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3/1/2009, 17:19 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
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Re: Poll: Dairying plans for 2009


quote:

smous wrote:

I can't vote unless I fib and that would skew the poll, therefore I can't see the results. :arrh




Uncertainty seems to be the order of the day so far:

17 votes

moderately confident 5 - 29%
No confidence, but can't afford to give up 2 - 12%
Uncertain 6 - 35%
Zero confidence 2 - 12%
Quit, but wish we were back in 1 - 6%
never dairy farmed 1 - 6%


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3/1/2009, 19:13 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
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Re: Poll: Dairying plans for 2009


quote:

FiringOnAllFour wrote:

One of the major UK milk buyers has already cut its price by 5ppl since the summer, and will cut by at least another 4ppl over the next handful of months, depending on where it finds the bottom to be.

What price roughly is that 2ppl deducted from?

I don't mean to be a 'Jeff' by the way. Thats just how it looks, standing on the wrong side of 20 pee.




I assume you're talking about United in NI - the basic price is about 20.3 ppl now isn't it?

The 2ppl deduction from Arla would be from a higher starting base.

Realistically, surely there are not many units that could survive a prolonged milk price below 20 ppl are there?

I am not sure that I totally agree with jeff's predictions about cattle prices though, or not in the UK at least. It seems to me that cattle prices are often disconnected to the profitability of dairying, and are more related to scarcity of replacements.



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3/1/2009, 19:23 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
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Re: Poll: Dairying plans for 2009


The base price for one month (nov) was 20.4, over 4ppl down from the previous month, and possibly 3ppl above what will be paid for december.

Can units survive below 20ppl? Well, oil will surely come back up in the mid term, which will strengthen grain too (if lower plantings this year doesn't do that). That keeps fertiliser up. So, its hard to see our costs returning to those of three years ago. Current costs for us aren't much fun. A top spec 21 dairy nut is still well beyond 200 quid. Fertiliser is still quoting above last year from what I can see. No matter how you try, the numbers just don't add up.

I think that in order for commodities to rise to a profitable value, a considerable measure of optimism would be needed across the world. I don't see that occurring this year. It strikes me that the dairy market could be prone at this time to the same 'fear' that the stock market is so sensitive to.




3/1/2009, 20:54 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
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Re: Poll: Dairying plans for 2009


Eryl Vet, I agree on your comment about the price of heifers being more to do with scarcity, but when are all those B&W inseminations that we have been hearing about going to kick in? I can't see dairy cattle being very dear in 12 months time, apart from the few "fancy" pedigrees.

Anyone contemplating getting out, would be advised to do it sooner rather than later, IMO.

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3/1/2009, 21:44 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
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Poll: Dairying plans for 2009


Also agree with Eryl Vet rear dairy cattle prices, locally prices have remained very bullish through the current low milk price and probably increased through the last one.

Thanks for the update EV.

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4/1/2009, 5:07 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
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Re: Poll: Dairying plans for 2009


quote:

Eryl Vet wrote:

quote:

smous wrote:

I can't vote unless I fib and that would skew the poll, therefore I can't see the results. :arrh




Uncertainty seems to be the order of the day so far:

17 votes

moderately confident 5 - 29%
No confidence, but can't afford to give up 2 - 12%
Uncertain 6 - 35%
Zero confidence 2 - 12%
Quit, but wish we were back in 1 - 6%
never dairy farmed 1 - 6%



I agree with you eryl vet, uncertainly seems to be popular ,but, there are positive signs for the agricultural industry as a whole. The news headlines are very negative just now and it is not fashionable to be optomistic but during the last 3 UK recessions interest rates were sky high 1975,1980,1990(but not now) inflation occured at each recessionary period (but not now) . The pound is low against the euro so we should be able to export,also our SFP payment will be bigger (if the pound stays low) More unemployed people should mean more labour available at economic prices. Buildings and improvements should be more competatively prices because the construction industry needs the work.
Its easy to be negative and I could list a few negatives but I won,t cos i'm an eternal optomist. I'm a farmer !!
4/1/2009, 13:40 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
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Re: Poll: Dairying plans for 2009


quote:

smous wrote:

I can't vote unless I fib and that would skew the poll, therefore I can't see the results. :arrh



If you fibbed and then told us how you had voted we could ignore your response...



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4/1/2009, 14:56 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 


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