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PADairymen Profile
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Ex 97 2E

Registered: 12-2009
Posts: 1676
Karma: 21 (+23/-2)
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Re: Who is going to pour out there milk on the 4th.


I wasn't suggesting to dump milk. I was just saying it would have to be done as a whole and throughout the year. I doubt if everyone dumped their milk once a month for an entire year there would be a surplus of much of anything - but it would create quite a bit of bad press.

How do managers use sexed semen to their advantage? "good managers will use it to there advantage to make money and stay viable." - I guess you're not really a good manager if you have to use sexed semen to be viable? But I'd love to hear how it is a good thing? I think it is a good thing for certain areas - like getting heifers out of high end cows (so the best cows on a dairy), but using it sweepingly over the entire herd - that creates a huge surplus. But I think milk prices and the huge surplus of heifers in the US has really put a lot of downward pressure on heifer prices in the US. For awhile there a grade springer was worth about beef price plus $500. Beef price is good enough now that you can cull out your big older cows and go out and buy up springers cheap for replacements - and not really have to spend much of anything - and get more milk in the tank.
5/7/2010, 0:46 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
howie32 Profile
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Ex96

Registered: 05-2004
Location: Michigan, USA
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Re: Who is going to pour out there milk on the 4th.


Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that a few hundred thousand extra heifers calving in will have a negative effect on milk prices. How about enforcing the immigration laws? Maybe it's time we go back to farmers actually milking their cows.

---
Long-Haven Farms, updated October 23, 2008
5/7/2010, 0:50 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
bazza20 Profile
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Ex 97 2E

Registered: 07-2009
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Re: Who is going to pour out there milk on the 4th.


PAD.
I'm not even saying people need to use it. ( i didn't this year) or that using sexed is guaranteed to make more money. But a good manager will use the tools he has and they may have done the numbers and using sexed on part or all of the herd may make them more money.
5/7/2010, 0:53 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
bazza20 Profile
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Ex 97 2E

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Re: Who is going to pour out there milk on the 4th.


Howie before flying off the handle have a think about it. Is sexed the only thing causing more milk.
5/7/2010, 0:55 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
PADairymen Profile
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Ex 97 2E

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Re: Who is going to pour out there milk on the 4th.


LOL. Yep, it made them more money for how long? Until everyone did it, and then milk prices sucked and they couldn't even sell off those extra heifers for extra income because the COP for raising heifers was higher than what the current market price was for them. Making the big bucks! At a loss. And on top of that the semen cost them that much more to get the heifer pregnant, and maybe lower conception rates. Genius! Why does it seem that no one understands the concept of diminishing returns - when sometimes the extra cost isn't worth the money.

For example, there's a bunch of 32,000 RHA herds out there that feed the crap out of their cows - so they get more income, but the cost of the feed exceeds the extra income. They'd be more profitable if they feed their cows less and took a little bit of a drop in production. Now that's not on every dairy, but I have seen it many times in my state.
5/7/2010, 1:01 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
howie32 Profile
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Ex96

Registered: 05-2004
Location: Michigan, USA
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Re: Who is going to pour out there milk on the 4th.


Didn't realize I was "flying off the handle." No, it's definitely not, but when milk prices are already low, how does it help? A well managed farm will have plenty of heifer calves without the use of sexed semen.

---
Long-Haven Farms, updated October 23, 2008
5/7/2010, 1:02 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
PADairymen Profile
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Ex 97 2E

Registered: 12-2009
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Re: Who is going to pour out there milk on the 4th.


I don't think Howie has ever flew off the handle. That's me. LOL.

I do think sexed semen will keep pressure on milk prices for a longer period of time over the next year or longer if not forever, than any other technology we've seen in the past. Think about it - before people freaked out about bST adding 10 lbs per cow, well now we have sexed semen that adds a whole another cow - so in the US that means on average 60-70lbs more, not just 10.

I don't think the technology should be banned, I like freedom to do as I please, but I think a floor price of $65 or more might not be bad, if not higher. $35-40 is way too low.
5/7/2010, 1:11 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
bazza20 Profile
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Ex 97 2E

Registered: 07-2009
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Re: Who is going to pour out there milk on the 4th.


quote:

PADairymen wrote:

LOL. Yep, it made them more money for how long? Until everyone did it, and then milk prices sucked and they couldn't even sell off those extra heifers for extra income because the COP for raising heifers was higher than what the current market price was for them. Making the big bucks! At a loss. And on top of that the semen cost them that much more to get the heifer pregnant, and maybe lower conception rates. Genius! Why does it seem that no one understands the concept of diminishing returns - when sometimes the extra cost isn't worth the money.

For example, there's a bunch of 32,000 RHA herds out there that feed the crap out of their cows - so they get more income, but the cost of the feed exceeds the extra income. They'd be more profitable if they feed their cows less and took a little bit of a drop in production. Now that's not on every dairy, but I have seen it many times in my state.



Pad Thats my point good managers will do the numbers( just like you have) and work this out and plan to do things that make the most profit for there business. I doubt many of them are tipping milk down the drain.

The discussion on sexed is a bit of a dead end. Its not going to get banned or have a price limit on it. So its a bit of a waste of time. But there are situations that sexed semen will make money others it wont. Depends on the situation and the way its used on each farm.
5/7/2010, 2:13 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
LRG Profile
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Ex97
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Registered: 08-2006
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Re: Who is going to pour out there milk on the 4th.


Sexed semen isn't just hurting milk price, it is also hurting cattle prices. I agree 100% with howie that a well managed herd should be able to grow from within without sexed semen. And banning everything that could be of help would be rediculous, all of the innovations you listed are not creating hundreds of thousands extra heifers every year. Sexed semen is one of those things that "seemed like a good idea at the time". I've personally had a lot of these moments, but in the long run it's more hurt than help. What will happen to milk prices with twice as many animals producing milk in 5 years time? Good management won't do anything to compete with that.

---
Herd Classification: 3ME 15VG 18GP 1 NC
5/7/2010, 2:13 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 
bazza20 Profile
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Ex 97 2E

Registered: 07-2009
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Re: Who is going to pour out there milk on the 4th.


quote:

LRG wrote:

Sexed semen isn't just hurting milk price, it is also hurting cattle prices. I agree 100% with howie that a well managed herd should be able to grow from within without sexed semen. And banning everything that could be of help would be rediculous, all of the innovations you listed are not creating hundreds of thousands extra heifers every year. Sexed semen is one of those things that "seemed like a good idea at the time". I've personally had a lot of these moments, but in the long run it's more hurt than help. What will happen to milk prices with twice as many animals producing milk in 5 years time? Good management won't do anything to compete with that.



There is no denying sexed has created more heifers, that's what it does. But banning it is ridiculous. Find ways to use the new technology to your advantage.

The market will sort it self out. Oversupply of heifers. Heifer prices drop, people don't breed so many heifers. Heifer numbers decrease, heifer prices rise again. The same goes for milk

The market always goes in cycles, this is just another one. Banning sexed wont help anyone in the long run. A farmer struggling now will be still struggling again in the future if sexed was banned.

5/7/2010, 2:23 Link to this post PM via Email   PM via Forum
 


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